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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround wins the prize. However, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest shock.

However this year's competition is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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